关键词: 油价波动, 煤层气选区, 指标权重, 敏感性分析

Abstract: The persistent slump in international oil prices has a huge impact on the development and utilization of unconventional oil and gas such as coalbed methane (CBM).CBM development has long been at an economically viable edge and requires government subsidies to maintain operations. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the development of blocks with economic benefits. The previous research on CBM development block optimization mostly focuses on the evaluation of the geological factors , and the weighting is not objective enough. It does not clarify the transmission mechanism of geological factors that affect economic benefits, nor does it pay attention to the profitability. Therefore, we consider and separately quantify the impact of oil price on the input and output factors in the CBM development process. Combining the sensitivity analysis of net present value（NPV） to various investments and costs, we provide an objective weight determination method from the economic point of view to adapt to CBM development block selection in the case of low oil prices. Five CBM blocks were selected for the method application to verify the rationality and feasibility of the method. The conclusion is that the optimization of CBM block should preferably pay more attention to economic impact factors, and the objective weight determination method using sensitivity analysis is more suitable for the Revenue-oriented CBM block optimization In the case of low oil prices.